As the only Spanish side to make it through to the Champions League knockout stages, the draw has opened up for Real Madrid. They could face any of the seven sides that finished second in the other groups.
Football statistician Alexis Martin-Tamayo has worked out the probabilities of each side that Real Madrid could face in the Round of 16, based off the limitations of the draw.
The side that Los Blancos are most likely to come up would be a repeat of last season’s Champions League final, against Liverpool. There is a 20.6% chance of the two facing each other.
The two teams least likely for Real Madrid to draw are Club Brugge, who knocked Atletico Madrid out, and Paris Saint-Germain. There is nearly half the chance that Real Madrid face them instead of Liverpool (11.3%).
Their other four possible opponents are more or less similar in terms of chance, Inter at 14.7%, slightly more likely than Milan, Eintracht Frankfurt, and Borussia Dortmund (14%).
Aquí tenéis la tabla con todas las probabilidades de todos los posibles emparejamientos del sorteo de octavos de final de la #UCL 2022-23.
Hay casi un 40% de opciones de que se enfrenten Bayern (pleno en el grupo de la muerte) y Liverpool (mejor segundo de todos los tiempos). pic.twitter.com/XX28zTuF8w
— MisterChip (Alexis) (@2010MisterChip) November 2, 2022
We have seen ceferins “american election style” computer mishaps last season, where RM got the absolutely hardest road to victory, so figures are really irrelevant.
Nothing sweeter than beating that cartel called UEFA.